General Election 2014 - Kanyakumari Lok Sabha constituency

I just wanted to provide my analysis on the status of this constituency in this election.

This one is going to be really big one. Please bear that.

It’s the south most part of India as far as I believe. It covers almost the district itself.

Some basic information about the district,

·         This district was part of Kerala till 1956

·         It’s the district with highest literacy rate in the state. (>97%)

·         District with long costal line and contributes well in fishing exports. Yes, obviously it has some considerable fisherman population.

·         Considered as a district with high percentage of Christian population.

So the breakup based on religion goes like this,

Hindu – 51%

Christian – 44%

Muslim – 4%

Others – 1%

·         If we divide the population based on caste system, the Nadars will be on top. Let me not go into that since I don’t have proof for that.

It becomes necessary to know the history of this district and its people. Due to time constraint I’m not going to touch that. Maybe will come up with a post on that.

Below are some additional information about the people and the district,

·         Most of the people here they don’t accept them as Dravidian People

·         People here has the mindset more like a Malayalee than Tamilian

·         Though most of them are educated they never come out for public issues

·         It’s a district which lacks a lot in public infrastructure

·         Improper administration of water resources has left the district in a drought state and nobody seems to be bothered about that

·         The water scarcity  has left the farmers to leave irrigation and go for some other alternatives

·         Though it has a lot of tourist spots both the central and state government never took any steps to improve that.

·         Almost all the dams are getting dumped with sand due to improper maintenance
(There are 5 big Dams which I’m aware of)

·         Almost all the river are polluted due to improper drainage management system

(There are 4 rivers which I’m aware of)

·         I hardly remember a new Bus being allocated to our district by state government. Always the damaged buses from Madurai and Nellai will be sent to Kanyakumari.

·         I hardly remember a new train being given to our district.

·         It’s hard to find a road in the district which is not broken. Even the NH47 which goes through two major towns in the district is in a worst state.

There are so many problems which were never addressed by the representatives of this constituency.

But the people here they are not bothered about that. There mentality is like the old saying “Be it Rama’s rule or Ravana’s rule my fate is climbing palm trees”.

Coming back to the election, right from the beginning this constituency has chosen its representatives who were congress supporters, either from INC or from TMC the sister of INC. The longest streak was broken in 1999 when Pon.Radhakrishnan from BJP was chosen as MP. That needs a separate post to explain that.

After that in 2004 and 2009 it was given to CPI (M) and DMK. Though INC was in ally with them they didn’t get it and contest. It would have been easy winnings for them in the previous two elections in Kanyakumari.

But this election, I feel Kanyakumari might not have seen such one in its history.

It’s a race with six major parties with somewhat equivalent support.

Let us first see what each party gained from this district in the past elections.

BJP – After 1980 communal riots the BJP, RSS, Viswa Hindu Parizad and Hindu Front were sowing haste in the mind of the Hindu to be united under one umbrella for protect their identity in the district. Out of the 51% Hindus down there nearly 10-15% fell for this prey. So BJP was able to score some good amount of votes in the earlier elections. In the last 3-4 years especially after the state assembly elections they started to work in full swing which leads to so many problems in the district. That includes hate propaganda against other community people, brain washing the youngsters in the name of religion etc. Considering their hard work in the last 3-4 years I would say that their typical Hindu BJP vote bank might have increased to 15-20%.

Congress – Right from the time of independence people of this land were Congress supporters. After the state level parties started dominating the state assembly the congress started losing its support. So as of now Congress would score minimum 10-15%.

Both DMK and ADMK are equally popular in the district. DMK might score 10-15%, whereas for ADMK it would be little lesser. But for sure ADMK would get 10%.

DMDK – it’s assumed that DMDK had some good support from here. But now I would say it will get hardly 5-10%, considering the massive support in the past from Fishermen community. Since the fishermen are now lured by the AAP candidate for his fight against KKNP this figure should be somewhere less than 5%.

PMK, VCK doesn’t hold any value here.

MDMK might have a 1-2% support. Same goes for SMK and MMK as well.

Now the new entry here is AAP. I would say they will get minimum 5-10% support.

Nearly 5-10% people will vote for the person who has the chance of winning. It doesn’t matter which party he belongs.

Nearly 10-15% people vote by looking at the candidate.

Looking at the above scenario the BJP has the bright chance to win in Kanyakumari this time.

Now let us see what the candidates hold for themselves.

1.    Pon. Radhakrishnan – BJP

Ex minister. Believed to be the first central minister from the district.

An active member of RSS.

·         They are targeting only the Hindu votes.

·         They are confident that at least 30-40% of the Hindus will vote for them. That’s close to 20% the total votes.

·         They believe that the Modi wave will help them attract the neutral Hindu votes and non Hindu votes as well.

·         They can easily take the local issues and attack the other candidates.

·         Since he has the bright chance of getting more than 20% of total votes, the people who cast their votes for the winning candidates would vote for him. That will add him 5-10% of votes.

·         So in total he might attract nearly 30% vote which in put him ahead of everyone.

·         Non Hindu votes will not come for him.

·         The communal violence created by them in the past might stop the neutral Hindu’s from voting for BJP.  

·         Some people who witnessed 1980 riots are afraid to see such a riot again. So they might not vote for BJP because of the latest activities of RSS, Viswa Hindu Parizad and Hindu Front.

·         So BJP’s dream of 30% vote might not become true.

·         When he contested from Nagercoil for state assembly, other party leaders were not happy with that. So due to internal party politics they might lose some votes.

2.    Sp Udayakumar – AAP

Well known social activist against KKNP.

Well educated as per the records.

Shows himself free from corruption.

·         Massive support from the fishermen community for standing against KKNP. Which might come around 10%.

·         Might get support from RC Christians as well.

·         Since he is backed by AAP he is expected to attract the new voters.
It’s assumed that AAP is known by the people who use social media and who follow news properly. And the elite class of the people feel that AAP can change the country upside down. So in the name of AAP he might get an extra 5-10% vote.

·         Some people are not happy with his protests against KKNP.

·         The way he handled the protests welcomed critics by some people and he is not a trusted person as some say.

·         AAP support votes might not come since they feel the candidate selection was bad.

·         People are not happy with the way he ran away from the cases filed against him related to foreign funds and national security.

3.    D John Thangam – AIADMK

·         Will get the typical ADMK vote which is not more than 10%.

·         ADMK do not have a strong base here.

·         Party itself feels that they do not have good vote bank here. So the party worker might not work with enthusiasm.

·         Power issues and Transport issues are a major setback for ADMK.

4.    A.V. Bellarmin – CPM

·         Will get some 5% vote through the unions and the party workers.

·         Other than Unions left parties do not hold anything here.

·         Party itself feels that they do not have good vote bank here. So the party worker might not work with enthusiasm.

·         They do not have a good name in the society.

5.    H. Vasanthakumar – INC

Well known business man in the state. Known for his hard work and commitment.

·         Will get the typical congress vote 10-15%.

·         Might attract few more votes since the name is popular in the south.

·         Due to internal party politics he might lose some votes as well.

·         No co-ordination between the party’s MLA’s in the district. That might result in the loss of party’s own votes.

·         Might attract the anti-BJP votes since some doubt DMK and ADMK of giving support to BJP post election.  

6.    FM Rajarathinam – DMK

Known business man in the district, But not that popular.

·         Will get the typical DMK vote which is nearly 10-15%.

·         Might face setback due to 2G scam

·         Possibilities of getting anti-ADMK votes

·         Possibilities of losing votes due to internal politics

The above figures might not be accurate and correct. Considering the internal politics in INC and DMK there is a huge chance of ADMK and AAP taking advantage. 

Now, who is going to win the race?

Below are just my assumptions.

BJP leads the race with nearly 20-25% support because of the allies.

DMK and INC might come second with equal 10-15% support.

AAP might join DMK and INC with some 10-15% support. 

ADMK might be coming next with nearly 10% support.

CPI (M) will be the last with nearly 5% support.

As of now it’s very clear that this time it’s going to be a very easy win for the BJP here.

The question here is, do they really deserve to win here? It’s simply a big ‘NO’.

To stop the district from falling in the hands of RSS, Viswa Hindu Parizad and Hindu Front,

To stop the district from an yet another communal riot like 1980,

To protect the communal harmony the district enjoys,

Irrespective of the religion the people has to choose whom to vote.

Now it’s in the peoples hand to give a tight fight to BJP.

·         Instead of voting for CPI (M) and ADMK though it’s very clear that they not going to come any near to the second place they can vote for DMK/INC/AAP.

·         Considering the AAP candidates past behaviours there is a big chance that he won’t get much votes as they expect. If he becomes MP there are chances that there will be a great riot in the south against KKNP and it might lead to communal violence as well. So voting for AAP is not a good option.

Only two parties can give a tight fight to BJP as long as the party workers work properly, they are DMK and INC. If the people stops and thinks for a minute they can cast their votes in a effective way.

They have to consider that only BJP, INC and DMK are in the race.

If you are against BJP you have to either vote for INC or DMK. Do not waste your votes on any other candidates.

Let us see how the things turn out here.