General Election 2014 - Kanyakumari Lok Sabha constituency

I just wanted to provide my analysis on the status of this constituency in this election.

This one is going to be really big one. Please bear that.

It’s the south most part of India as far as I believe. It covers almost the district itself.

Some basic information about the district,

·         This district was part of Kerala till 1956

·         It’s the district with highest literacy rate in the state. (>97%)

·         District with long costal line and contributes well in fishing exports. Yes, obviously it has some considerable fisherman population.

·         Considered as a district with high percentage of Christian population.

So the breakup based on religion goes like this,

Hindu – 51%

Christian – 44%

Muslim – 4%

Others – 1%

·         If we divide the population based on caste system, the Nadars will be on top. Let me not go into that since I don’t have proof for that.

It becomes necessary to know the history of this district and its people. Due to time constraint I’m not going to touch that. Maybe will come up with a post on that.

Below are some additional information about the people and the district,

·         Most of the people here they don’t accept them as Dravidian People

·         People here has the mindset more like a Malayalee than Tamilian

·         Though most of them are educated they never come out for public issues

·         It’s a district which lacks a lot in public infrastructure

·         Improper administration of water resources has left the district in a drought state and nobody seems to be bothered about that

·         The water scarcity  has left the farmers to leave irrigation and go for some other alternatives

·         Though it has a lot of tourist spots both the central and state government never took any steps to improve that.

·         Almost all the dams are getting dumped with sand due to improper maintenance
(There are 5 big Dams which I’m aware of)

·         Almost all the river are polluted due to improper drainage management system

(There are 4 rivers which I’m aware of)

·         I hardly remember a new Bus being allocated to our district by state government. Always the damaged buses from Madurai and Nellai will be sent to Kanyakumari.

·         I hardly remember a new train being given to our district.

·         It’s hard to find a road in the district which is not broken. Even the NH47 which goes through two major towns in the district is in a worst state.

There are so many problems which were never addressed by the representatives of this constituency.

But the people here they are not bothered about that. There mentality is like the old saying “Be it Rama’s rule or Ravana’s rule my fate is climbing palm trees”.

Coming back to the election, right from the beginning this constituency has chosen its representatives who were congress supporters, either from INC or from TMC the sister of INC. The longest streak was broken in 1999 when Pon.Radhakrishnan from BJP was chosen as MP. That needs a separate post to explain that.

After that in 2004 and 2009 it was given to CPI (M) and DMK. Though INC was in ally with them they didn’t get it and contest. It would have been easy winnings for them in the previous two elections in Kanyakumari.

But this election, I feel Kanyakumari might not have seen such one in its history.

It’s a race with six major parties with somewhat equivalent support.

Let us first see what each party gained from this district in the past elections.

BJP – After 1980 communal riots the BJP, RSS, Viswa Hindu Parizad and Hindu Front were sowing haste in the mind of the Hindu to be united under one umbrella for protect their identity in the district. Out of the 51% Hindus down there nearly 10-15% fell for this prey. So BJP was able to score some good amount of votes in the earlier elections. In the last 3-4 years especially after the state assembly elections they started to work in full swing which leads to so many problems in the district. That includes hate propaganda against other community people, brain washing the youngsters in the name of religion etc. Considering their hard work in the last 3-4 years I would say that their typical Hindu BJP vote bank might have increased to 15-20%.

Congress – Right from the time of independence people of this land were Congress supporters. After the state level parties started dominating the state assembly the congress started losing its support. So as of now Congress would score minimum 10-15%.

Both DMK and ADMK are equally popular in the district. DMK might score 10-15%, whereas for ADMK it would be little lesser. But for sure ADMK would get 10%.

DMDK – it’s assumed that DMDK had some good support from here. But now I would say it will get hardly 5-10%, considering the massive support in the past from Fishermen community. Since the fishermen are now lured by the AAP candidate for his fight against KKNP this figure should be somewhere less than 5%.

PMK, VCK doesn’t hold any value here.

MDMK might have a 1-2% support. Same goes for SMK and MMK as well.

Now the new entry here is AAP. I would say they will get minimum 5-10% support.

Nearly 5-10% people will vote for the person who has the chance of winning. It doesn’t matter which party he belongs.

Nearly 10-15% people vote by looking at the candidate.

Looking at the above scenario the BJP has the bright chance to win in Kanyakumari this time.

Now let us see what the candidates hold for themselves.

1.    Pon. Radhakrishnan – BJP

Ex minister. Believed to be the first central minister from the district.

An active member of RSS.

·         They are targeting only the Hindu votes.

·         They are confident that at least 30-40% of the Hindus will vote for them. That’s close to 20% the total votes.

·         They believe that the Modi wave will help them attract the neutral Hindu votes and non Hindu votes as well.

·         They can easily take the local issues and attack the other candidates.

·         Since he has the bright chance of getting more than 20% of total votes, the people who cast their votes for the winning candidates would vote for him. That will add him 5-10% of votes.

·         So in total he might attract nearly 30% vote which in put him ahead of everyone.

·         Non Hindu votes will not come for him.

·         The communal violence created by them in the past might stop the neutral Hindu’s from voting for BJP.  

·         Some people who witnessed 1980 riots are afraid to see such a riot again. So they might not vote for BJP because of the latest activities of RSS, Viswa Hindu Parizad and Hindu Front.

·         So BJP’s dream of 30% vote might not become true.

·         When he contested from Nagercoil for state assembly, other party leaders were not happy with that. So due to internal party politics they might lose some votes.

2.    Sp Udayakumar – AAP

Well known social activist against KKNP.

Well educated as per the records.

Shows himself free from corruption.

·         Massive support from the fishermen community for standing against KKNP. Which might come around 10%.

·         Might get support from RC Christians as well.

·         Since he is backed by AAP he is expected to attract the new voters.
It’s assumed that AAP is known by the people who use social media and who follow news properly. And the elite class of the people feel that AAP can change the country upside down. So in the name of AAP he might get an extra 5-10% vote.

·         Some people are not happy with his protests against KKNP.

·         The way he handled the protests welcomed critics by some people and he is not a trusted person as some say.

·         AAP support votes might not come since they feel the candidate selection was bad.

·         People are not happy with the way he ran away from the cases filed against him related to foreign funds and national security.

3.    D John Thangam – AIADMK

·         Will get the typical ADMK vote which is not more than 10%.

·         ADMK do not have a strong base here.

·         Party itself feels that they do not have good vote bank here. So the party worker might not work with enthusiasm.

·         Power issues and Transport issues are a major setback for ADMK.

4.    A.V. Bellarmin – CPM

·         Will get some 5% vote through the unions and the party workers.

·         Other than Unions left parties do not hold anything here.

·         Party itself feels that they do not have good vote bank here. So the party worker might not work with enthusiasm.

·         They do not have a good name in the society.

5.    H. Vasanthakumar – INC

Well known business man in the state. Known for his hard work and commitment.

·         Will get the typical congress vote 10-15%.

·         Might attract few more votes since the name is popular in the south.

·         Due to internal party politics he might lose some votes as well.

·         No co-ordination between the party’s MLA’s in the district. That might result in the loss of party’s own votes.

·         Might attract the anti-BJP votes since some doubt DMK and ADMK of giving support to BJP post election.  

6.    FM Rajarathinam – DMK

Known business man in the district, But not that popular.

·         Will get the typical DMK vote which is nearly 10-15%.

·         Might face setback due to 2G scam

·         Possibilities of getting anti-ADMK votes

·         Possibilities of losing votes due to internal politics

The above figures might not be accurate and correct. Considering the internal politics in INC and DMK there is a huge chance of ADMK and AAP taking advantage. 

Now, who is going to win the race?

Below are just my assumptions.

BJP leads the race with nearly 20-25% support because of the allies.

DMK and INC might come second with equal 10-15% support.

AAP might join DMK and INC with some 10-15% support. 

ADMK might be coming next with nearly 10% support.

CPI (M) will be the last with nearly 5% support.

As of now it’s very clear that this time it’s going to be a very easy win for the BJP here.

The question here is, do they really deserve to win here? It’s simply a big ‘NO’.

To stop the district from falling in the hands of RSS, Viswa Hindu Parizad and Hindu Front,

To stop the district from an yet another communal riot like 1980,

To protect the communal harmony the district enjoys,

Irrespective of the religion the people has to choose whom to vote.

Now it’s in the peoples hand to give a tight fight to BJP.

·         Instead of voting for CPI (M) and ADMK though it’s very clear that they not going to come any near to the second place they can vote for DMK/INC/AAP.

·         Considering the AAP candidates past behaviours there is a big chance that he won’t get much votes as they expect. If he becomes MP there are chances that there will be a great riot in the south against KKNP and it might lead to communal violence as well. So voting for AAP is not a good option.

Only two parties can give a tight fight to BJP as long as the party workers work properly, they are DMK and INC. If the people stops and thinks for a minute they can cast their votes in a effective way.

They have to consider that only BJP, INC and DMK are in the race.

If you are against BJP you have to either vote for INC or DMK. Do not waste your votes on any other candidates.

Let us see how the things turn out here.

Role of NRI in love stories

What? You broke up with her? What happened machi?

That’s a big story machi. You leave it.

Come on man. You guys were happy together when we met some months back. K. BTW who dumped whom?

Of course that was me who dumped her. :D  we are gethu machi. We should never allow someone to dump us.

Cut the crap. Don’t I know you? Tell me the truth. What did you do?

Hmmm. Nothing man. Usual fights turned into big issue.

***** I’m not a stupid to believe this. You are a compromising person. You would never allow small fights to become big issue.

Her parents did not accept machi.

Oh. Did you talk to them?

No. She did.

Ok. What did they say?

I don’t know. Maybe they might have felt that I’m earning less.

But she was happy with you. She knew everything about you. She could have convinced her na?

She tried machi. But they were so stubborn in their decision.

Ok....

They started searching groom for her. And she rejected many.

Cool. That was bold decision. How did she reject?

Actually she didn’t reject. She didn’t accept it. Even her parents couldn’t convince her.

Super. Even she was strong on her stand right? Then what happened?

We were planning for register marriage with the help of my friends.

Oh. She was ready for such a marriage?

Yes machi. She was so happy and excited about it.

Hmmm. You saw that in her eyes?

Well, I didn’t see. I was at states at that time. So we were having telecommunication only. Since she was staying in hostel we used to talk for long hours every day.

Ok. Then why didn’t you marry?

My friends made all the arrangements and I was planning to come back to India. Then she said that she will try to convince her parents once for the last time.

Why? Wasn’t she convinced 100% with your register marriage plan? You said she was happy and excited.

Hmmm. She sounded like that only. K. She took few days leave and went home to talk with her parents.

She could have talked to her parents from here itself na?

Yeah. But she said that she wanted to talk to them face to face. She was having little faith on them that they will accept considering her age.

Hmmm. You guys were of same age. But you are just 27 now. That’s not some big issue.

No machi. In our community mostly girls will be getting married by 25 years itself. But she was delaying hers since her parents didn’t accept our love. Already her relatives started to question them. So she was hoping that they will accept it.

Oh. Like that. Ok.

From the day she went home I lost contact with her. I tried calling her home number. Her parents used to attend and they hung up all the time.

Oh. Was she seized by them?

Hope so. After a month again she called me and told me that she was engaged.

WTH?

Yeah. I was shocked. She told me that they forced her to accept it.

But she didn’t accept their plea for those many years.

Hmmm. She said that she didn’t have a choice.

Maybe they might have blackmailed her.

Yeah. They did that quite some time s in the past. But she too was a stubborn girl. I wonder how she accepted it.

So what did you tell her?

I asked her to call off. But she was not ready to disappoint her parents. That made me upset and I hung up.

Hmmm. What is he doing?

I don’t know machi. But he is a NRI doing some business abroad.

Oh. What about the alliances she got prior to that one?

They were some local guys working in IT and some business.

Hmmm. Do you think she might have chosen him considering the life abroad?

No. Not at all. She is not that type of girl.

Hmmm. Did u ever talk to her after that?

Yeah. Few weeks before her wedding she called me and asked me that she wanted to meet me for the last time.

What did you say?

I hoped that she is calling me to give me surprise that her wedding was called off or her parents had accepted for our wedding.

So you were hoping that she would come back to you?

Yes machi. We were that much close machi.

Oh. So you came down to India to meet her?

Yes. It was season time so I didn’t get tickets. I spent few L to come to Chennai the very next day.

Then?

Nothing. No surprise. Only shocking. She was wearing her engagement ring. A platinum chain presented by him. And was carrying a brand new mobile presented by him.

Now it’s getting interested. :) Then what happened?

She said that she wanted to roam around the city with me in bike for the last time.

**** You could have asked her to ********?

No machi. She was really missing me.

Oh. That’s the reason she came to meet you with engagement ring, chain and mobile.

Hmmm. I don’t know machi. I asked her to remove the ring and chain till I leave. But she didn’t do it.

Cut the crap. Did u go out with her?

Yeah. We went for a movie. Then shopping. Bought her some dress. She got me a jean and shirt. Then I dropped her at her hostel.

That's it? She didn’t say anything else?

Hmmm. No. While dropping her she asked me for one more round in bike. So I took her to CCD and again dropped her.

Hmmm. I don’t know what to say machi.

Even till the last minute I was hoping the she would come with me nu.

Hmmm. Did you contact her after that?

No.

Why?

She was happy with her wedding machi.

When I met her the last day she was completely changed. Her dressing, hair style, makeup...

Oh. Maybe she was getting ready for life abroad.

See, this is why I never shared this with anyone. You are always making fun of others feelings.

Come on machi. I was just kidding.

Hmmm. When I asked her about the change she said that she wanted to forget the past and start a new life.

Ok. Then why the hell she wanted to meet you for the last time?

We were together for more than 7 years man. She might have felt it hard to leave me just like that.

Ok. After getting engaged with someone why was she hugging you and roaming out with you in bike?

Hmmm. She loves to come with me in bike.

So, are you saying that her mind was filled with your thoughts but she chose to wed the NRI just because of her parents?

100% true.

Shut the **** and get lost. Don’t justify whatever she did. ... .. ... ..

No machi. ....

++***

++*****+

++*****+++

The delayed independence of India

It was shocking information for me.

The independence of India was delayed for nearly 25 years because of one man who wanted the whole nation to follow his way.

In September 1920 Gandhi convinced leaders of INC of the need to start a non-cooperation movement for independence (self rule).

It urged the use of khadi (Khaddar) and Indian material as alternatives to those shipped from Britain.

It also urged people to boycott British educational institutions and law courts; resign from government employment; refuse to pay taxes; and forsake British titles and honors.

And Gandhi wanted the ideals of Ahimsa or non-violence to be on top the movement.

The movement enjoyed widespread popular support, and the resulting unparalleled magnitude of disorder presented a serious challenge to foreign rule.

Every day the movement was gaining more support from the Indians.

It continued for more than 2 years.

The success of the revolt was a total shock to British authorities and a massive encouragement to millions of Indians.

It forced the British authorities to plan for changes in rules.

On 2nd February, 1922 around 3000 strong protesters were protesting for a fair price of meat in the marketplace of Chauri Chaura.

One of their leaders was arrested.

So some people of the crowd were protesting and shouting slogans for release of their leader in front of police station. 

The crowd started shouting anti-government slogans.

Armed police were dispatched to control the crowd.

In an attempt to frighten and disperse the crowd, the police fired warning shots into the air but this only agitated the crowd who began to throw stones at the police.

With the situation getting out of control, the sub-inspector ordered the police to open fire on the advancing crowd, killing three and wounding several others. 

Reports vary on the reason for the police retreat with some claiming that the police ran out of ammunition while others claim that fear of the crowd's unexpectedly courageous and angry reaction to the gunfire were the cause.

In the ensuing chaos, the heavily outnumbered police fell back to the shelter of the police station while the angry mob advanced.

Infuriated by the gunfire into their ranks, the crowd took revenge by setting the station ablaze, killing the 23 policeman trapped inside. 

Gandhi felt that he had acted too hastily in encouraging people to revolt against the British Raj without sufficiently emphasizing the importance of ahimsa (non-violence) and without adequately training the people to exercise restraint in the face of attack.

He decided that the Indian people were ill-prepared and not yet ready to do what was needed to achieve independence.

Just because his ideology of ahimsa was violated by a group of people he stopped the national revolt single-handedly.

What else the crowd would do if 20 policemen try to threaten a group of 3000 men who protest peacefully?

What else they would do if few of them were killed and many of them were wounded?

All he cared about was the ahimsa not the independence of India.

He wanted the history of India to be written as Gandhi won the independence through his ahimsa movements.

And he defended himself saying “If he had not stopped the revolts, India could have descended into a chaotic rebellion which would have alienated common Indians and impress only violent revolutionaries”.

Is it?

At that time that movement was spread all over the country.

Is it possible that 3000 people gather at a small place Chauri Chaura without the support of common Indians?

The movement was successful enough to break the back of British rule, and possibly even result in the independence most Indians strove for until 1947.

But a single man convinced the INC to stop the successful movement for his own glory and wasted the efforts of the whole country.

If the revolt would have continued, India would have got the independence and the partition of India would not have happened and few other gentlemen like Bhagat Singh and Nethaji would not have died.

As Nethaji mentioned the independence of India was a settled fact. The only uncertain factor was the time factor.

Gandhi also knew this very well. He delayed it as far as he can so that he can become popular all around the world and say that he won the independence struggle.

Pity that the whole nation calls him the father of the nation though he was not actually declared as one.

P.S : It is purely my view and if anyone feels it is wrong, please inbox me with your comments. Will be happy to correct myself. 
Source: 
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chauri_Chaura_incident
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-cooperation_movement